FEAR THE BLUE BEAR

Note: What follows hereafter is explained much more clearly if read while listening to this. It's streaming mp3- set your media player to "repeat" and read on.

There is a war in my mind fought over the nature of the game of baseball. For most of my life, basketball has been the sport I have played and watched most frequently. So the old adage of "Bigtime players will make bigtime plays in big situations" has been engrained in me. You see, in this sport, the heroic efforts and synergy of cohesive units allow teams to be greater than the sum of their talents. There are so many factors to the game that smart play in tough situations often controls the outcome. I would like to think all sports are this way.

However, baseball is completely different sort of game. Most plays are one-on-one confrontations. Great team chemistry and a penchant for coming up big in big situations might never make a difference in the game. For example, a guy in right field with a great throwing arm can't impact the game with that arm if the ball never leaves the infield. The one-on-one nature of baseball paired with a large 162 game sample size is what lends baseball towards statistical analysis. So, despite my hardwood inclinations, it has been my belief that having "clutch" guys on a baseball team is somewhat irrelvant.

Statistics have shown that, given a large enough sample size, most batters will hit very near their career averages in so called "clutch" situations. Even Derek Jeter, the ESPN god of the Postseason, sports a career .306 playoff average in comparison to his lifetime .315 average (take that John Kruk).

So when I see something like, say, a bloop hit off of Jerry Hairston's glove in shallow right to lose a game, I instinctively think to myself, "Don't worry, self. It is just one unlucky game. Latroy pitched well, and we will get a lucky game sometime in return. Law of averages.... Law of averages....."

This is how I, a Cubs fan, sleep at night.

That's why it is painful when, the very next day, Latroy throws a routine lineout sowewhere onto Addison Street to lose yet another game in the ninth. I swear I saw Latroy look in the camera after that play, point at me and yell, "Average this, b****."

Len Kasper has been quoting statistics all year on Latroy as a closer. The short of it is that, if you include all situations, he is no better or worse than the league average over the last few years. However, his 9th inning statistics are significantly lower.

So where does this leave us? It could be that being "clutch" in baseball simply means being able to perform at the same level all the time- that only "unclutch" guys exist. It could be that the Cubs will win five games in a ridiculous manner later on this season. It could also be that this Cubs team simply has a knack for finding ways to lose games in the most unlikely of ways, and Latroy Hawkins is a head case.

I suppose, if you believe in the paranormal, it is also conceivable that the stat gods have fused the two Chicago baseball teams into one sample. If you consider that the White Sox and the Cubs are playing in opposite directions and many standard deviations away from the mean of baseball luck, you realize that overall they are one big, mediocre team. Personally, I believe that this is just karma paying me back for saying earlier this year that I hear the music referenced above everytime I see video highlights of Rick Ankiel pitching.

Whatever the reasons and regardless of the conclusions we draw, at least the Cubs aren't giving the illusion of competency preceding a meltdown like they did last year. It's probably better on my stress levels if we fall out of the race in May instead of September. Grab some popcorn, fans, for this comedy of errors has many acts yet to come.

- Yesterday's win over the Reds was a big one. Dropping a couple to these guys at home would have hurt pretty bad. I know that it is a long season and that little stretches shouldn't make a whole lot of difference, but we do have a few guys on our roster who are prone to put their head down when things go sour (read: Latroy, Carlos, Kerry).

- I will preface this by saying that I am content with the broadcast team we have. Brenly and Kasper are pretty middle of the road in my opinion, so I don't love them or hate them. That being said, Lenny's voice is really starting to get to me. When he makes a home run call, his voice sounds like Barney from the Simpsons after a kick in the groin.

- Last year's summer mancrush on Derrek Lee is resurfacing pretty strong....

- More later...

P.S. How do the Bulls keep winning? No team that gets significant playing time from Eric Piatkowski, Adrian Griffin, and Othella Harrington should win a game in the playoffs. Kudos to Skiles and the young studs off the bench.

"In the spring a young man’s fancy lightly turns to thoughts of love...."

.... Or, in the case of this intrepid student, thoughts of exams and final projects. Posts have been scarce as of late but the Blue Bear has been keeping close tabs on the season. I know it may just be perpetual Cubs gloom, but it feels as though the season is slipping away already. Starters are dropping like flies, the bullpen is becoming a mess, and Aramis Ramirez has misplaced his bat thus far. The burden on the starting pitching could be immense this season. Hey, at least we have a logically sound manager at the helm.... uh... hmmm.

- I think it's time we just put this out there, mourn a little bit, and get over it. It's painfully clear that Neifi Perez has sold his soul to the devil. Moment of silence - aaaaand move on.

- Who else is anxiously awaiting the day that Jeromy Burnitz gets season ending whiplash from his gi-normous swing? It's like he thinks he's playing T-ball-- pick a spot and swing as hard as you can at it. I can't decide whether it's a credit to him or a knock on the pitchers that he actually picks the right spot 25% of the time. When he comes to the plate, the Disney cartoon of "Casey at the Bat" plays over and over in my mind...

- I know it's been beaten to death already, but why did Dusty pinch hit Macias for the red-hot Jason Dubois the other night? Maybe Dusty just doesn't trust young guys. It's not like Jason is 26. What's that? Oh.

-The Bill James philosophy on a closer is to bring in your best late inning pitcher when the situation is most critical. For example, if the heart of the order comes up in the 8th, you put the closer in then, instead of saving him for the 9th. While I'm not completely sold on this idea, I think maybe Dusty should try this with Latroy- without telling him. Latroy is the guy who said during spring training that he feels comfortable in the 8th because there is room for error. It's possible that we could trick him into thinking that there is no pressure in the 7th or 8th. Then again, maybe it's not exactly wise to play head games with a guy who tells reporters he is "f***ing crazy." Then again.... if that leads to Latroy taking out Dusty....

-I know there's a nickname joke about Nomar Garcia-popup to Nomar Garcia-groinpull, but I'm not going to make it.

All in all, the Cubs are nowhere close to losing the season. Neifi! and Derrek are making up for the lack of production from Nomar (RIP) and Aramis. Things will even out, and the Wild Card will be within grasp. Don't give up hope just yet.

the game isn't over yet, but I'm really pissed off no matter the outcome. i didn't get to see most of the game because I had to go to class. Don't know how bad kerry was......it looks like he continues to be baffled by lefty hitters. Who I'm really angry at are Dusty (big suprise) and Barret. Dusty should have kept Rusch in as he had a great first inning. Leicester has been struggling mightily the whole season. So lets put him into the most crucial part of the game.....just stupid. Despite making a bad decision to have Leicester start the inning, he compunds the mistake by keeping him in way too long. Speaking of bad decisions, what the hell is barret trying to do.
What an idiotic attempt at a tripple play. Just be happy you were given the gift of that double play. My anger at barret doesn't stop there. He's not hitting because he's not seeing pitches. He has got to start taking some more pitches. I don't mind him being agressive because that's the type of hitter he is. But he's averaging about 2.5 ptiches per plate appearance this year. That's a number even nomar hasn't come close to reaching. Hoepfully he can begin justifying some of that new contract he signed after having his first good year in the majors. Hopefully hendry's man love for barret will not turn out to be a big mistake. End of rant.

I'm writing this during today's game, and I don't really have any huge ideas to write about. I just have a few random things floating around my head, so here they go:

- WHYYYYYYYYY is Hollandsworth starting today? What happened to the platoon with Dubois? Jason should be starting in the first place, but that's obviously not going to happen. The very least the Cubs could do would be to follow through with what they said they were going to do. I just e-mailed Cubs.com's Carrie Muskat to ask her about it. I don't really expect a reply, but if I do get one, I'm sure she'll respond in her usual charming way.

-How long can Neifi! keep up this charade? I'm putting the over/under at 22 hours.

-Mark Redman=Glendon Rusch

-Short book review: I finished Three Nights in August not too long ago, and it was just okay. It was nice to look back at part of that great 2003 season. It brought back some good, and in the case of 2 out of 3 games of the series covered in the book, bad memories. I guess the book could best be described as a character piece, but the man crush that writer Buzz Bissinger has on La Russa just overshadows everything. The book just makes me dislike La Russa even more. It also seems that the book was also trying to service as an antithesis to Moneyball. Good luck with that. One particularly excruciating segment was the talk of Tino Martinez and his mysterious loss of clutchness after coming to the Cardinals. It talks about the big home run he hit during the 2001 World Series as if that made Greek God of Clutch. (sorry for the pitiful attempt at reference) When he came to the Cardinals he suddenly couldn't get a big hit. Bissinger then describes a crucial part of a game with the Cubs. The bases are loaded with 1 out late in a tight game. He hits a grounder which the author describes as a ball that might make it through or could just as easily be turned into a double play. The ball gets through, runners score, Tino's clutch again, La Russo's happy he found his missing clutchness. Okay, if the grounder off Martinez's bat could admittedly go either way, then how is it clutch? Isn't that just dumb luck? Doesn't make sense to me. There's more of the same throughout the book. It's a shame too, because this could have been a really good book. There were particularly good section's about Eldred's comeback, Ankiel's meltdown, La Russa's divorce, and Kile's death (I can't even fathom the Cub's having to go through something like that). Instead the book tries overly hard to push La Russa as a sort of mad genius, but instead he just comes off as mad. I would recommend this book to Cubs and Cards fans, but no one else. I give it a C+. Next up is Cub Nation. I have a feeling that I'll like this one a little bit more.

- I have to add this in the middle cause I'm watching the game while writing this. Why pinch hit Dubois for Maddux with 2 outs and no one on. Maddux is pitching great, and he's only thrown 77 pitches. I don't get it. Maybe Maddux had a tee time he had to get to. And is there a worse way we could be using Dubois? If there is, Dusty will find it.

- That time of year is here. With the coming of the Cardinal series Wednesday, the fans from the respective teams feel the need to quarrel like 2 frat guys over who pops their collar better. It's all pretty useless in my mind. I guess it’s a fun old pastime, but it gets out of hand sometime. I've definitely been guilty of it from time to time. I've wanted to kill good friends because of this. I've found recently that the Internet fighting can get really absurd. TheBirdwatch.com felt the need to criticize TheCubReporter.com's criticism of former Card and certifiable insane Steve Kline (one thing I found out in Three Nights is that he loves to walk around naked). He not only criticized the criticism, but also the apparently weak diss (did I spell that right?). Thehardballtimes.com also ripped on Kline. Who wouldn't? I respect the fact that Kline is being honest and up front about his feelings. That's cool, but the fact that he's having these feelings is dumb. He chose to get into that situation. He chose to take a couple million more than what he could have got. He's not playing well, but his team is. He needs to get over himself and start playing well. I think he'd be happy then. But back to the point at hand. I'm going to the game on Thursday with some friends, all but one being Cardinal fan. I'm going to be a nervous wreck. There's just something about this rivalry that makes jittery and anxious. It's twice as bad when I'm there for the games. Here's hoping it goes well.

- I love Derrek Lee. He is quickly becoming my favorite position player. Thank God Dusty flipped Burnitz and Lee in the order.

- What the hell is with that picture of Jack Wilson as a pirate at PNC? I know that's the team's name, but that's just ugly and dumb.

- I hate Will and Grace.

-Did I just see Macias take a 2 out walk?

As you can see, my random thoughts are getting pretty bad so I'm going to wrap it up.

We are now 4-5, and although it's still very early in the season I'm going to go ahead and draw some conclusions. Somtimes I'll watch and see things that our very encouraging, and then other times it looks like last season never even ended. So I'm going to list some pros and cons that I've noticed so far. We'll start with the bad:
Cons
1. Neifi!/Jose and Dusty- This drives me crazier than anything else possibly could. Yes, I know Neifi had 6 hits today, but I don't care. He's most likely reached his quota for the first 2 months, so we should just bench him now. NOW! Of course, Dusty would rather bow down to Tony La Russa than do that. He loves guys like Macias and Perez because he thinks they are versatile. If by versatile he means not good at a lot of things then he's right. I just hate to think that Perez's 6 hits (which traveled a combined 400 feet) will come back to haunt us in the form of September pinch hitting attempts in crucial spots

2. Kerry Wood- I know it's early, but he has looked pretty bad. He has absolutely no command right now, especially over his breaking ball. I'm pretty sure that he'll get back to the level he has established for himself over the past few years. And that's good. He has been a good to very good pitcher over his career, but it just hurts to see that because he has the ability to be great. I'm convinced now that his problemsare 99% mental. He's gotta figure out a way to be consistent, especially when he doesn't have his best stuff. I still have hope that he'll turn into a cy young contender, but they're slipping.

3. Offense- Our offense just has too many holes in it to be a consistent threat. The more I think about it, the more I think that Hendry did an awful job in the offseason. Hollandsworth is not a starter, he's not even a platoon player. He's a guy that should get about 250-300 plate appearances. Burnitz is a fringe starter. He's definitely not a starter for 5 million a year. We could have done a much better job replacing Alou and Sosa. And if The Cubs are going to be cheap and not properly fill the positions they need, they could at least give a guy like Dubois a chance to start. I'm pretty sure he could put similar numbers to Burnitz. As far as second base goes, there is no reason Hairston shouldn't be starting every game while Walker is out. And it's one thing to start Neifi!, but another thing all together when he hits in the 2 hole. It's going to be an automatic out (after today). Oh yea, I forget, Perez can handle the bat.

Pros
1. Derrek/Corey- Both of these guys look great to me so far. Lee seemingly refuses to swing at anything close to a bad pitch. He's seeing the ball great this year, which is great considering his increased importance in the lineup. He's really locked in early as opposed to last year. I'm thinking big for him this year. Like 300/400/580 big. A lot of people, including me were thinking similar to that last year. It didn't happen, but that doesn't mean it can't. My main reasons for thinking this way is his hot start, the similarity in numbers through the same age as Scott Rolen (I'm sure I'm stretching here), and his doubles/homers total last year. Last year, Derrek had his career high in doubles and homers. I have a feeling that a lot of those doubles are going to turn into homers. As for Corey, I'm very suprised. We all read the reports on how he was really working on his approach this offseason. And then Spring Training came and he didn't even walk once. Not once! He's still not walking a lot, but he looks ten times more patient than he was last year. He's taking pitches. Taking pitches, by God! And some of them are even close. He's also fixed his swing a lot in that he's not releasing the bat half way through his swing. He's now got a great 2-handed followthrough on his swing giving him good bat control. He's smacking a lot of line drives up the middle, and while he's not hitting for much power so far, I'm confident it will come naturally if he lets it. My only complaint so far as that he's not stealing every time he reaches first base. There have been a couple obvious times to steal this year, when, for some reason, he didn't go. That needs to change. I'm a Moneyball guy, but I have supreme confidence in Corey's speed. I think this is the crucial year for Patterson. I think this is the year we find out if we are getting Tori Hunter, Garret Anderson, or Carlos Beltran. This year I'm thinking he'll put up around 300/350/470 with 40 steals.

2. Relief Pitching- All three of you probably think I'm crazy for saying this, and maybe I am. But I think that the rumors of our relief corps demise is greatly exagerated. Latroy will put good numbers, closer or not. He may not be an elite closer, but I can't see him being bad like last year again. That first save he blew was a little unlucky. Mike (Sam Elliot) Remingler is very good when healthy, and he claims to be completely healthy and looks good so far. Fox is the same way. Rusch is a very nice swingman. Leicester has very good stuff, command is another issue. I'm not sold on him. The Jury's still out on Bartosh too (how nice would it be to have a real lefty specialist as oppose to Remlinger and his freakish reverse splits). Then there's Mike Wuertz. He was a dark horse coming into this season, and so far has looked very good. He reminds me a lot of former Cardinal Kiko Calero. If Latroy fails, I think he should be the choice for closer. It's also nice to have Scott Williamson in your back pocket for later.

3. Mark Prior- Wait......I don't want to jinx him after one start.

So there you go. It is still very early, and I'm probably jumping to conclusions (except for the Neifi/Jose thing). But, thats what obsessive baseball fans do, and I definitely fill that description. Just keep an eye out for further developments on the list, and we'll check back on it later.

OK. I'll admit. I have been too run down from Illinois' run to really get into baseball. Watching the Cubs put up 16 in one game and then drop the next two in Arizona didn't excite or bother me too much. I've been very calm with the season so far. There have been any paranoid "the season is ending" moments for me..... until today.

It is no secret that San Diego has a good bullpen, so when Corey Patterson singled off Akinori "the Balk" Otsuka, I was mildly excited that the Cubs might have something started. You see, it is also no secret that Corey is a very fast person. My hopes were quickly shattered as I remembered that Neifi! was... gasp... the starting 2 hitter. I knew what was coming. Every Cub fan probably did, becuase it is brutally obvious that Dusty Baker is a fan of smallball, especially in the worst situations. So, Neifi! lays down a bunt, followed by your standard issue intentional walk, your standard issue pop-up, and your VERY standard issue Jeromy Burnitz strikeout to end the inning and, essentially, the game.

Why does he not give Corey a chance to swipe that bag??? He is a career 80% base stealer. Yes, Hernandez has a good arm, but it's not like Otsuka is lighting quick to the plate. If Corey is on second, then you can either let Neifi! swing away or lay one down. Assuming he bunts Corey to third (or hits a slow roller to the right side), you now have men on first on third with one out (after the inevitable IBB).

Considering only the ensuing Aramis AB, you lose in either scenerio on a douple play. This would most likely be a groundout.

You win with Corey on second ONLY on a solid base hit.

With Corey on third, you win on a base hit, a relatively deep flyout, and an groundball deep in the hole.

Now, I am a recent convert to Moneyball style of thinking. Statheads agree that you have a higher statistical chance of scoring with a man on second and no one out than a guy on third with one out. I know Dusty would not agree and will lay a bunt down, and I am not totally against the idea when it Neifi! is up to bat. It just makes more sense to bunt Corey to third instead of second. You give yourself more options- more chances to win.

So, I ask, is this too early to be going nuts about Dusty? Probably. Will this revelation lead to a general calm from me about his present and future decisions? Probably not. What does this mean? It could be a long season....

More thoughts:

-Read this excerpt from Gene Wojciechowski's book about the Cubs. Does this sound like the cool handed guy you want closing out your wins? Personally, I think it's equal parts scary and hilarious.

- I kinda like Len Kasper and Bob Brenly. This could just be a honeymoon period, but Kasper seems unannoying and throws in stats pretty well, while Brenly chimes in with some interesting tidbits that only managers might know. This will being a continuing plotline as the season progresses.

- Dempster pitched (surprisingly) well. I would love for him to throw in a dash of consistency with his talent, buuuut I'm not holding my breath...

- I'm impressed by Wuertz so far. Here's hoping he doesn't start in with the 6 run innings like last year.

- I'm also impressed by the team's approach at the plate. Corey looks like a new animal, and we are taking more pitches than last year. There is no reason that D. Lee can't walk 100 times this year.

- Prior starts tomorrow. Let's hope he's better than that first inning in Iowa.