Monday, April 11, 2005
Is it too early?
OK. I'll admit. I have been too run down from Illinois' run to really get into baseball. Watching the Cubs put up 16 in one game and then drop the next two in Arizona didn't excite or bother me too much. I've been very calm with the season so far. There have been any paranoid "the season is ending" moments for me..... until today.
It is no secret that San Diego has a good bullpen, so when Corey Patterson singled off Akinori "the Balk" Otsuka, I was mildly excited that the Cubs might have something started. You see, it is also no secret that Corey is a very fast person. My hopes were quickly shattered as I remembered that Neifi! was... gasp... the starting 2 hitter. I knew what was coming. Every Cub fan probably did, becuase it is brutally obvious that Dusty Baker is a fan of smallball, especially in the worst situations. So, Neifi! lays down a bunt, followed by your standard issue intentional walk, your standard issue pop-up, and your VERY standard issue Jeromy Burnitz strikeout to end the inning and, essentially, the game.
Why does he not give Corey a chance to swipe that bag??? He is a career 80% base stealer. Yes, Hernandez has a good arm, but it's not like Otsuka is lighting quick to the plate. If Corey is on second, then you can either let Neifi! swing away or lay one down. Assuming he bunts Corey to third (or hits a slow roller to the right side), you now have men on first on third with one out (after the inevitable IBB).
Considering only the ensuing Aramis AB, you lose in either scenerio on a douple play. This would most likely be a groundout.
You win with Corey on second ONLY on a solid base hit.
With Corey on third, you win on a base hit, a relatively deep flyout, and an groundball deep in the hole.
Now, I am a recent convert to Moneyball style of thinking. Statheads agree that you have a higher statistical chance of scoring with a man on second and no one out than a guy on third with one out. I know Dusty would not agree and will lay a bunt down, and I am not totally against the idea when it Neifi! is up to bat. It just makes more sense to bunt Corey to third instead of second. You give yourself more options- more chances to win.
So, I ask, is this too early to be going nuts about Dusty? Probably. Will this revelation lead to a general calm from me about his present and future decisions? Probably not. What does this mean? It could be a long season....
More thoughts:
-Read this excerpt from Gene Wojciechowski's book about the Cubs. Does this sound like the cool handed guy you want closing out your wins? Personally, I think it's equal parts scary and hilarious.
- I kinda like Len Kasper and Bob Brenly. This could just be a honeymoon period, but Kasper seems unannoying and throws in stats pretty well, while Brenly chimes in with some interesting tidbits that only managers might know. This will being a continuing plotline as the season progresses.
- Dempster pitched (surprisingly) well. I would love for him to throw in a dash of consistency with his talent, buuuut I'm not holding my breath...
- I'm impressed by Wuertz so far. Here's hoping he doesn't start in with the 6 run innings like last year.
- I'm also impressed by the team's approach at the plate. Corey looks like a new animal, and we are taking more pitches than last year. There is no reason that D. Lee can't walk 100 times this year.
- Prior starts tomorrow. Let's hope he's better than that first inning in Iowa.
It is no secret that San Diego has a good bullpen, so when Corey Patterson singled off Akinori "the Balk" Otsuka, I was mildly excited that the Cubs might have something started. You see, it is also no secret that Corey is a very fast person. My hopes were quickly shattered as I remembered that Neifi! was... gasp... the starting 2 hitter. I knew what was coming. Every Cub fan probably did, becuase it is brutally obvious that Dusty Baker is a fan of smallball, especially in the worst situations. So, Neifi! lays down a bunt, followed by your standard issue intentional walk, your standard issue pop-up, and your VERY standard issue Jeromy Burnitz strikeout to end the inning and, essentially, the game.
Why does he not give Corey a chance to swipe that bag??? He is a career 80% base stealer. Yes, Hernandez has a good arm, but it's not like Otsuka is lighting quick to the plate. If Corey is on second, then you can either let Neifi! swing away or lay one down. Assuming he bunts Corey to third (or hits a slow roller to the right side), you now have men on first on third with one out (after the inevitable IBB).
Considering only the ensuing Aramis AB, you lose in either scenerio on a douple play. This would most likely be a groundout.
You win with Corey on second ONLY on a solid base hit.
With Corey on third, you win on a base hit, a relatively deep flyout, and an groundball deep in the hole.
Now, I am a recent convert to Moneyball style of thinking. Statheads agree that you have a higher statistical chance of scoring with a man on second and no one out than a guy on third with one out. I know Dusty would not agree and will lay a bunt down, and I am not totally against the idea when it Neifi! is up to bat. It just makes more sense to bunt Corey to third instead of second. You give yourself more options- more chances to win.
So, I ask, is this too early to be going nuts about Dusty? Probably. Will this revelation lead to a general calm from me about his present and future decisions? Probably not. What does this mean? It could be a long season....
More thoughts:
-Read this excerpt from Gene Wojciechowski's book about the Cubs. Does this sound like the cool handed guy you want closing out your wins? Personally, I think it's equal parts scary and hilarious.
- I kinda like Len Kasper and Bob Brenly. This could just be a honeymoon period, but Kasper seems unannoying and throws in stats pretty well, while Brenly chimes in with some interesting tidbits that only managers might know. This will being a continuing plotline as the season progresses.
- Dempster pitched (surprisingly) well. I would love for him to throw in a dash of consistency with his talent, buuuut I'm not holding my breath...
- I'm impressed by Wuertz so far. Here's hoping he doesn't start in with the 6 run innings like last year.
- I'm also impressed by the team's approach at the plate. Corey looks like a new animal, and we are taking more pitches than last year. There is no reason that D. Lee can't walk 100 times this year.
- Prior starts tomorrow. Let's hope he's better than that first inning in Iowa.
# posted by Brian @ 17:45 
