Friday, May 06, 2005
Comedy of Errors
Note: What follows hereafter is explained much more clearly if read while listening to this. It's streaming mp3- set your media player to "repeat" and read on.
There is a war in my mind fought over the nature of the game of baseball. For most of my life, basketball has been the sport I have played and watched most frequently. So the old adage of "Bigtime players will make bigtime plays in big situations" has been engrained in me. You see, in this sport, the heroic efforts and synergy of cohesive units allow teams to be greater than the sum of their talents. There are so many factors to the game that smart play in tough situations often controls the outcome. I would like to think all sports are this way.
However, baseball is completely different sort of game. Most plays are one-on-one confrontations. Great team chemistry and a penchant for coming up big in big situations might never make a difference in the game. For example, a guy in right field with a great throwing arm can't impact the game with that arm if the ball never leaves the infield. The one-on-one nature of baseball paired with a large 162 game sample size is what lends baseball towards statistical analysis. So, despite my hardwood inclinations, it has been my belief that having "clutch" guys on a baseball team is somewhat irrelvant.
Statistics have shown that, given a large enough sample size, most batters will hit very near their career averages in so called "clutch" situations. Even Derek Jeter, the ESPN god of the Postseason, sports a career .306 playoff average in comparison to his lifetime .315 average (take that John Kruk).
So when I see something like, say, a bloop hit off of Jerry Hairston's glove in shallow right to lose a game, I instinctively think to myself, "Don't worry, self. It is just one unlucky game. Latroy pitched well, and we will get a lucky game sometime in return. Law of averages.... Law of averages....."
This is how I, a Cubs fan, sleep at night.
That's why it is painful when, the very next day, Latroy throws a routine lineout sowewhere onto Addison Street to lose yet another game in the ninth. I swear I saw Latroy look in the camera after that play, point at me and yell, "Average this, b****."
Len Kasper has been quoting statistics all year on Latroy as a closer. The short of it is that, if you include all situations, he is no better or worse than the league average over the last few years. However, his 9th inning statistics are significantly lower.
So where does this leave us? It could be that being "clutch" in baseball simply means being able to perform at the same level all the time- that only "unclutch" guys exist. It could be that the Cubs will win five games in a ridiculous manner later on this season. It could also be that this Cubs team simply has a knack for finding ways to lose games in the most unlikely of ways, and Latroy Hawkins is a head case.
I suppose, if you believe in the paranormal, it is also conceivable that the stat gods have fused the two Chicago baseball teams into one sample. If you consider that the White Sox and the Cubs are playing in opposite directions and many standard deviations away from the mean of baseball luck, you realize that overall they are one big, mediocre team. Personally, I believe that this is just karma paying me back for saying earlier this year that I hear the music referenced above everytime I see video highlights of Rick Ankiel pitching.
Whatever the reasons and regardless of the conclusions we draw, at least the Cubs aren't giving the illusion of competency preceding a meltdown like they did last year. It's probably better on my stress levels if we fall out of the race in May instead of September. Grab some popcorn, fans, for this comedy of errors has many acts yet to come.
There is a war in my mind fought over the nature of the game of baseball. For most of my life, basketball has been the sport I have played and watched most frequently. So the old adage of "Bigtime players will make bigtime plays in big situations" has been engrained in me. You see, in this sport, the heroic efforts and synergy of cohesive units allow teams to be greater than the sum of their talents. There are so many factors to the game that smart play in tough situations often controls the outcome. I would like to think all sports are this way.
However, baseball is completely different sort of game. Most plays are one-on-one confrontations. Great team chemistry and a penchant for coming up big in big situations might never make a difference in the game. For example, a guy in right field with a great throwing arm can't impact the game with that arm if the ball never leaves the infield. The one-on-one nature of baseball paired with a large 162 game sample size is what lends baseball towards statistical analysis. So, despite my hardwood inclinations, it has been my belief that having "clutch" guys on a baseball team is somewhat irrelvant.
Statistics have shown that, given a large enough sample size, most batters will hit very near their career averages in so called "clutch" situations. Even Derek Jeter, the ESPN god of the Postseason, sports a career .306 playoff average in comparison to his lifetime .315 average (take that John Kruk).
So when I see something like, say, a bloop hit off of Jerry Hairston's glove in shallow right to lose a game, I instinctively think to myself, "Don't worry, self. It is just one unlucky game. Latroy pitched well, and we will get a lucky game sometime in return. Law of averages.... Law of averages....."
This is how I, a Cubs fan, sleep at night.
That's why it is painful when, the very next day, Latroy throws a routine lineout sowewhere onto Addison Street to lose yet another game in the ninth. I swear I saw Latroy look in the camera after that play, point at me and yell, "Average this, b****."
Len Kasper has been quoting statistics all year on Latroy as a closer. The short of it is that, if you include all situations, he is no better or worse than the league average over the last few years. However, his 9th inning statistics are significantly lower.
So where does this leave us? It could be that being "clutch" in baseball simply means being able to perform at the same level all the time- that only "unclutch" guys exist. It could be that the Cubs will win five games in a ridiculous manner later on this season. It could also be that this Cubs team simply has a knack for finding ways to lose games in the most unlikely of ways, and Latroy Hawkins is a head case.
I suppose, if you believe in the paranormal, it is also conceivable that the stat gods have fused the two Chicago baseball teams into one sample. If you consider that the White Sox and the Cubs are playing in opposite directions and many standard deviations away from the mean of baseball luck, you realize that overall they are one big, mediocre team. Personally, I believe that this is just karma paying me back for saying earlier this year that I hear the music referenced above everytime I see video highlights of Rick Ankiel pitching.
Whatever the reasons and regardless of the conclusions we draw, at least the Cubs aren't giving the illusion of competency preceding a meltdown like they did last year. It's probably better on my stress levels if we fall out of the race in May instead of September. Grab some popcorn, fans, for this comedy of errors has many acts yet to come.
# posted by Brian @ 17:01 
Comments:
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All statements made are our express opinion only and should be treated as such.
We may own, take position and sell any securities mentioned at any time. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect
to predictions, goals, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, object'ives, assumptions or future events or perfo'rmance are
not
statements of historical fact and may be "forward,|ooking
statements." forward,|ooking statements are based on expectations, estimates
and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results
or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. This newsletter was paid $3,000 from third party (IR Marketing).
Forward,|ooking statements in this action may be identified through the use of words such as: "pr0jects", "f0resee", "expects". in compliance with Se'ction 17. {b), we disclose the holding of EGTY shares prior to the publication of this report. Be aware of an inherent conflict of interest resulting from such holdings due to our intent to profit from the liquidation of these shares. Shar,es may be sold at any time, even after positive statements have been made regarding the above company. Since we own shares, there is an inherent conflict of interest in our statements and opinions. Readers of this publication are cautioned not
to place undue reliance on forward,|ooking statements, which are based on certain assumptions and expectations involving various risks and uncertainties that could cause results to
differ materially from those set forth in the forward- looking statements. This is not solicitation to buy or sell st-0cks, this text is
or informational purpose only and you should seek professional advice from registered financial advisor before you do anything related
with buying or selling st0ck-s, penny st'0cks are very high risk and you can lose your entire inves,tment.
========Latest Profile==========
Energy & Asset Technology, Inc. (EGTY)
Current Price $0.15
================================
Recognize this undiscovered gem which is poised to jump!!
Please read the following Announcement in its Entierty and
Consider the Possibilities�
Watch this One to Trad,e!
Because, EGTY has secured the global rights to market
genetically enhanced fast growing, hard-wood trees!
EGTY trading volume is beginning to surge with landslide Announcement.
The value of this Stoc,k appears poised for growth! This one will not
remain on the ground floor for long.
KEEP READING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
===============
"BREAKING NEWS"
===============
-Energy and Asset Technology, Inc. (EGTY) owns a global license to market
the genetically enhanced Global Cedar growth trees, with plans to
REVOLUTIONIZE the forest-timber industry.
These newly enhanced Globa| Cedar trees require only 9-12 years of growth before they can
be harvested for lumber, whereas worldwide growth time for lumber is 30-50 years.
Other than growing at an astonishing rate, the Global Cedar has a number of other benefits.
Its natural elements make it resistant to termites, and the lack of oils and sap found in the wood
make it resistant to forest fire, ensuring higher returns on investments.
T
he wood is very lightweight and strong, lighter than Poplar and over twice
as strong as Balsa, which makes it great for construction. It also has
the unique ability to regrow itself from the stump, minimizing the land and
time to replant and develop new root systems.
Based on current resources and agreements, EGTY projects revenues of $140 Million
with an approximate profit margin of 40% for each 9-year cycle. With anticipated
growth, EGTY is expected to challenge Deltic Timber Corp. during its initial 9-year cycle.
Deltic Timber Corp. currently trades at over $38.00 a share with about $153 Million in revenues.
As the reputation and demand for the Global Cedar tree continues to grow around the world
EGTY believes additional multi-million dollar agreements will be forthcoming. The Global Cedar nursery has produced
about 100,000 infant plants and is developing a production growth target of 250,000 infant plants per month.
Energy and Asset Technology is currently in negotiations with land and business owners in New Zealand,
Greece and Malaysia regarding the purchase of their popular and profitable fast growing infant tree plants.
Inquiries from the governments of Brazil and Ecuador are also being evaluated.
Conclusion:
The examples above show the Awesome, Earning Potential of little
known Companies That Explode onto Investor�s Radar Screens.
This s-t0ck will not be a Secret for long. Then You May Feel the Desire to Act Right
Now! And Please Watch This One Trade!!
GO EGTY!
All statements made are our express opinion only and should be treated as such.
We may own, take position and sell any securities mentioned at any time. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect
to predictions, goals, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, object'ives, assumptions or future events or perfo'rmance are
not
statements of historical fact and may be "forward,|ooking
statements." forward,|ooking statements are based on expectations, estimates
and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results
or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. This newsletter was paid $3,000 from third party (IR Marketing).
Forward,|ooking statements in this action may be identified through the use of words such as: "pr0jects", "f0resee", "expects". in compliance with Se'ction 17. {b), we disclose the holding of EGTY shares prior to the publication of this report. Be aware of an inherent conflict of interest resulting from such holdings due to our intent to profit from the liquidation of these shares. Shar,es may be sold at any time, even after positive statements have been made regarding the above company. Since we own shares, there is an inherent conflict of interest in our statements and opinions. Readers of this publication are cautioned not
to place undue reliance on forward,|ooking statements, which are based on certain assumptions and expectations involving various risks and uncertainties that could cause results to
differ materially from those set forth in the forward- looking statements. This is not solicitation to buy or sell st-0cks, this text is
or informational purpose only and you should seek professional advice from registered financial advisor before you do anything related
with buying or selling st0ck-s, penny st'0cks are very high risk and you can lose your entire inves,tment.
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