Friday, May 06, 2005
Comedy of Errors
Note: What follows hereafter is explained much more clearly if read while listening to this. It's streaming mp3- set your media player to "repeat" and read on.
There is a war in my mind fought over the nature of the game of baseball. For most of my life, basketball has been the sport I have played and watched most frequently. So the old adage of "Bigtime players will make bigtime plays in big situations" has been engrained in me. You see, in this sport, the heroic efforts and synergy of cohesive units allow teams to be greater than the sum of their talents. There are so many factors to the game that smart play in tough situations often controls the outcome. I would like to think all sports are this way.
However, baseball is completely different sort of game. Most plays are one-on-one confrontations. Great team chemistry and a penchant for coming up big in big situations might never make a difference in the game. For example, a guy in right field with a great throwing arm can't impact the game with that arm if the ball never leaves the infield. The one-on-one nature of baseball paired with a large 162 game sample size is what lends baseball towards statistical analysis. So, despite my hardwood inclinations, it has been my belief that having "clutch" guys on a baseball team is somewhat irrelvant.
Statistics have shown that, given a large enough sample size, most batters will hit very near their career averages in so called "clutch" situations. Even Derek Jeter, the ESPN god of the Postseason, sports a career .306 playoff average in comparison to his lifetime .315 average (take that John Kruk).
So when I see something like, say, a bloop hit off of Jerry Hairston's glove in shallow right to lose a game, I instinctively think to myself, "Don't worry, self. It is just one unlucky game. Latroy pitched well, and we will get a lucky game sometime in return. Law of averages.... Law of averages....."
This is how I, a Cubs fan, sleep at night.
That's why it is painful when, the very next day, Latroy throws a routine lineout sowewhere onto Addison Street to lose yet another game in the ninth. I swear I saw Latroy look in the camera after that play, point at me and yell, "Average this, b****."
Len Kasper has been quoting statistics all year on Latroy as a closer. The short of it is that, if you include all situations, he is no better or worse than the league average over the last few years. However, his 9th inning statistics are significantly lower.
So where does this leave us? It could be that being "clutch" in baseball simply means being able to perform at the same level all the time- that only "unclutch" guys exist. It could be that the Cubs will win five games in a ridiculous manner later on this season. It could also be that this Cubs team simply has a knack for finding ways to lose games in the most unlikely of ways, and Latroy Hawkins is a head case.
I suppose, if you believe in the paranormal, it is also conceivable that the stat gods have fused the two Chicago baseball teams into one sample. If you consider that the White Sox and the Cubs are playing in opposite directions and many standard deviations away from the mean of baseball luck, you realize that overall they are one big, mediocre team. Personally, I believe that this is just karma paying me back for saying earlier this year that I hear the music referenced above everytime I see video highlights of Rick Ankiel pitching.
Whatever the reasons and regardless of the conclusions we draw, at least the Cubs aren't giving the illusion of competency preceding a meltdown like they did last year. It's probably better on my stress levels if we fall out of the race in May instead of September. Grab some popcorn, fans, for this comedy of errors has many acts yet to come.
There is a war in my mind fought over the nature of the game of baseball. For most of my life, basketball has been the sport I have played and watched most frequently. So the old adage of "Bigtime players will make bigtime plays in big situations" has been engrained in me. You see, in this sport, the heroic efforts and synergy of cohesive units allow teams to be greater than the sum of their talents. There are so many factors to the game that smart play in tough situations often controls the outcome. I would like to think all sports are this way.
However, baseball is completely different sort of game. Most plays are one-on-one confrontations. Great team chemistry and a penchant for coming up big in big situations might never make a difference in the game. For example, a guy in right field with a great throwing arm can't impact the game with that arm if the ball never leaves the infield. The one-on-one nature of baseball paired with a large 162 game sample size is what lends baseball towards statistical analysis. So, despite my hardwood inclinations, it has been my belief that having "clutch" guys on a baseball team is somewhat irrelvant.
Statistics have shown that, given a large enough sample size, most batters will hit very near their career averages in so called "clutch" situations. Even Derek Jeter, the ESPN god of the Postseason, sports a career .306 playoff average in comparison to his lifetime .315 average (take that John Kruk).
So when I see something like, say, a bloop hit off of Jerry Hairston's glove in shallow right to lose a game, I instinctively think to myself, "Don't worry, self. It is just one unlucky game. Latroy pitched well, and we will get a lucky game sometime in return. Law of averages.... Law of averages....."
This is how I, a Cubs fan, sleep at night.
That's why it is painful when, the very next day, Latroy throws a routine lineout sowewhere onto Addison Street to lose yet another game in the ninth. I swear I saw Latroy look in the camera after that play, point at me and yell, "Average this, b****."
Len Kasper has been quoting statistics all year on Latroy as a closer. The short of it is that, if you include all situations, he is no better or worse than the league average over the last few years. However, his 9th inning statistics are significantly lower.
So where does this leave us? It could be that being "clutch" in baseball simply means being able to perform at the same level all the time- that only "unclutch" guys exist. It could be that the Cubs will win five games in a ridiculous manner later on this season. It could also be that this Cubs team simply has a knack for finding ways to lose games in the most unlikely of ways, and Latroy Hawkins is a head case.
I suppose, if you believe in the paranormal, it is also conceivable that the stat gods have fused the two Chicago baseball teams into one sample. If you consider that the White Sox and the Cubs are playing in opposite directions and many standard deviations away from the mean of baseball luck, you realize that overall they are one big, mediocre team. Personally, I believe that this is just karma paying me back for saying earlier this year that I hear the music referenced above everytime I see video highlights of Rick Ankiel pitching.
Whatever the reasons and regardless of the conclusions we draw, at least the Cubs aren't giving the illusion of competency preceding a meltdown like they did last year. It's probably better on my stress levels if we fall out of the race in May instead of September. Grab some popcorn, fans, for this comedy of errors has many acts yet to come.
